VIX on the Mar 18, 2018

“Index of fear” shows that the group of commercials gradually comes out with a long position, open interest is reduced, the price gradually returns to the range of the flat.

Correlation with the ES 500 index shows that the ES 500 index after correction will resume its growth.

/HG on the Mar 18, 2018

Slightly above the level of $ 3.2 was a strong sale (huge volume), which until the current day keeps the price below $ 3.2. The open interest begins to rise, while we expect a further fall to the level of $ 3 (which will show further price behavior).

In general, we can confidently say that the short position of the Commercial strongly stopped the growing trend.

VIX on the Dec 10, 2017

Since the last post Commercial twice built up a short position – both times VIX sharply soared above 11.5 points, followed by returning to 9 points.

Both times, the index e-mini SP500 does not fall below the previous low – positive divergence.

At the moment, open interest is declining, possibly reducing volatility.

/GC on the Dec 10, 2017

For a set of net shorts, gold needs to raise the price to at least 1300, attract new customers, sell them goods and continue to wait for the price drop.

Gold futures met expectations – the price touched $ 1300 twice, and, not being above this level, fell to the current level of $ 1250.

Commercial began to liquidate some short position, as evidenced by the reduction in open interest.

Now we need to see how the market behaves in the region of $1250 – $1240.

/CL on the Dec 10, 2017

Gold futures reached $59 and adjusted to $56. At the same time, the price for an important area of resistance is $56 – $57.
After adjusting the price from $59 to $56, the Commercial continues to increase its short position. The heating season has already begun – it is likely that a further insignificant price increase to $60 – $63.

But, with the expectation of the growth of the dollar, this growth in oil futures may take a month or two.

/HG on the Nov 19, 2017

Slowly, but on large volumes, reached $3.05 and stopped.

What happened from the end of October / beginning of November is the rebuy of the Commercial of its huge short positions on Copper. Further, expect the movement to $3.2

On this movement it will be necessary to observe the open interest …

/GC on the Nov 19, 2017

Short positions Commercial bought off a quarter (starting in September 2017). Gold stabilized at around $1270, after the price went to conquer the nearest $ 1,310 extreme.

For a set of net shorts, gold needs to raise the price to at least 1300, attract new customers, sell them goods and continue to wait for the price drop.

Short position of the Commercial group (most likely) will start to fall by this moment.

We are waiting for the development of the situation …