Continues to develop flat at a level of $ 60 – $ 70. Open interest begins to decline a little. Considering the weakening dollar – the price of oil can grow impulsively to $ 70.
Gold futures reached $59 and adjusted to $56. At the same time, the price for an important area of resistance is $56 – $57.
After adjusting the price from $59 to $56, the Commercial continues to increase its short position. The heating season has already begun – it is likely that a further insignificant price increase to $60 – $63.
But, with the expectation of the growth of the dollar, this growth in oil futures may take a month or two.
The net position of the Commercial group began to increase (the growth of shorts) against the background of the growth of open interest – all this indicates that the price will continue to decline.
Oil has updated the local maximum on a growing volume.
The most interesting, at the same time oil growth occurs against the backdrop of the growth of the dollar !!! The same gold does not grow, but falls.
- E-mini SP500 (/ES);
- 30-year US Bond (/ZB);
- Gold (/GC);
- Bonds yield (TNX, TYX, FVX);
- Crude oil (/CL).
The comment will be later…
Oil futures are still in the flat. The net position of the Commercial almost didn’t decrease, while the open interest stands still – all this means holding a short position (in the review about intermarket analysis I will later explain why).
The situation begins to change … the net position of Commercial oil futures begins to decline (to build up shorts), while the growth of open interest indicates that there is a short position set.
It is possible to update the previous local maximum – grabbing shortsties, and leaving down.
As expected, oil has grown a little.
According to the CFTC report, the Commercial group was gradually gaining a long position in early May and mid-July: the growth of open interest in the reduction (purchases) of the net position.
Still expect the asset to grow…