Continues to develop flat at a level of $ 60 – $ 70. Open interest begins to decline a little. Considering the weakening dollar – the price of oil can grow impulsively to $ 70.
Gold futures reached $59 and adjusted to $56. At the same time, the price for an important area of resistance is $56 – $57.
After adjusting the price from $59 to $56, the Commercial continues to increase its short position. The heating season has already begun – it is likely that a further insignificant price increase to $60 – $63.
But, with the expectation of the growth of the dollar, this growth in oil futures may take a month or two.
The net position of the Commercial group began to increase (the growth of shorts) against the background of the growth of open interest – all this indicates that the price will continue to decline.
Oil has updated the local maximum on a growing volume.
The most interesting, at the same time oil growth occurs against the backdrop of the growth of the dollar !!! The same gold does not grow, but falls.
Oil futures are still in the flat. The net position of the Commercial almost didn’t decrease, while the open interest stands still – all this means holding a short position (in the review about intermarket analysis I will later explain why).
The situation begins to change … the net position of Commercial oil futures begins to decline (to build up shorts), while the growth of open interest indicates that there is a short position set.
It is possible to update the previous local maximum – grabbing shortsties, and leaving down.
As expected, oil has grown a little.
According to the CFTC report, the Commercial group was gradually gaining a long position in early May and mid-July: the growth of open interest in the reduction (purchases) of the net position.
Still expect the asset to grow…
At 17:30 (MSK) published data on crude oil reserves. The previous value is 5.888M, the actual value is 4.591M (change is -22%).
The heating season is not “far off”, so further decline in inventories is expected, which will affect the price increase.