Until early October 2017, the bond rate confirmed (though not with the same dynamics) the dynamics of the SP500 index. At the end of 2017, the bond market began to decline sharply, the stock market (sp500) did not pay attention to it (the last buyers bought). After that, the SP500 market fell sharply.
This again confirms the relationship between the stock market and the debt market.
After the growth of the short position (against the background of the growth of open interest) in December 2017, the bond rate fell sharply and stopped. On this drop, the commercial began to buy sharply (the growth of open ineterset confirms this).
It is possible to update the minimum bond price to the support №1 or to support №2, after which the price will go up.
“Index of fear” shows that the group of commercials gradually comes out with a long position, open interest is reduced, the price gradually returns to the range of the flat.
Correlation with the ES 500 index shows that the ES 500 index after correction will resume its growth.
The price, as planned, reached the target level of $ 3.5. After that, the price sharply returned to the starting point. This flat lasts from the end of 2016. A level break (Support # 1) $ 2.6 will mean a move to $ 2.1.
But, most likely, the price will reach $ 3.0 (mid-flat)
Slightly above the level of $ 3.2 was a strong sale (huge volume), which until the current day keeps the price below $ 3.2. The open interest begins to rise, while we expect a further fall to the level of $ 3 (which will show further price behavior).
In general, we can confidently say that the short position of the Commercial strongly stopped the growing trend.
Continues to develop flat at a level of $ 60 – $ 70. Open interest begins to decline a little. Considering the weakening dollar – the price of oil can grow impulsively to $ 70.
Analysis of bitcoin futures.
On Friday, bitcoin futures (/BTC) fell below $8,600, after the purchase volume, the price rose sharply. At the same time, the level of resistance of $9,000 remains important. Breaking this level will mean the end of the last week’s trend.
After strong purchasing volumes from $10,600 and last week’s volume, the price is likely to start rising. But, for a real turn, there are not enough stronger signals.
The Commercal Group is gaining an extremely short maximum position (more than in 2014). It is likely the formation of a flat in the region of $60- $70.
Next you need to watch the open interest.
Last year and the beginning of this year, gold was under an important area of resistance ($ 1340- $ 1360), which was formed in 2016.
Group Commercial under this area of resistance is still beginning to gain a short position (the growth of open interest is confirmed).
After a huge volume released last week, the price began to decline. The 10-year chart shows that this is the key level of resistance.
Anticipation of further decline to support level of $ 2.9