Since the last post Commercial twice built up a short position – both times VIX sharply soared above 11.5 points, followed by returning to 9 points.
Both times, the index e-mini SP500 does not fall below the previous low – positive divergence.
At the moment, open interest is declining, possibly reducing volatility.
The situation on the futures contracts on natural gas today following …
… important level of $3.3 – $3.3.
Open interest Commercial only just started to grow, with the accumulation of long positions. When fixing prices above $2.9 it will be possible to talk about the end of a downtrend.
Further, expect the movement to $3.2
Copper futures stopped at the support level of $3.03, then grew to an estimated $3.2 and the breakdown of support.
Today, Commercial also reduces the short position (seen from the open interest reduction). We expect further stabilization of prices near the current level.
For a set of net shorts, gold needs to raise the price to at least 1300, attract new customers, sell them goods and continue to wait for the price drop.
Gold futures met expectations – the price touched $ 1300 twice, and, not being above this level, fell to the current level of $ 1250.
Commercial began to liquidate some short position, as evidenced by the reduction in open interest.
Now we need to see how the market behaves in the region of $1250 – $1240.
Gold futures reached $59 and adjusted to $56. At the same time, the price for an important area of resistance is $56 – $57.
After adjusting the price from $59 to $56, the Commercial continues to increase its short position. The heating season has already begun – it is likely that a further insignificant price increase to $60 – $63.
But, with the expectation of the growth of the dollar, this growth in oil futures may take a month or two.